R-454B Shortage: HVACR Contractors Scold Executives on Zoom, Who in Turn Offer Explanations

What if Air Conditioning Contractors of America (ACCA) hosted a webinar on the R-454B refrigerant shortage, and everybody came? The answer is: fireworks.

The webinar, intended to provide HVACR contractors with an explanation and update surrounding the shortage of R-454B refrigerant, was held on June 11, and the real news wasn’t the explanations and reassuring comments made by the refrigerant/cylinders/equipment supplier panelists, rather it was the heat was generated by the no-holds-barred text comments by contractors listening in on Zoom.

Here's a sampling of contractor comments:

“You have said nothing to relieve our fears for panic buying. You have made poor choices, and we will suffer the consequences, and I don’t see any good things coming. Better leadership is needed.”

“Our company is selling Daikin until the shortage is over. We are a TCS dealer. It kills me to sell Daikin over Trane.”

“I really have a hard time with the forecasting answer. Considering that nearly every OEM switched to 454B and 410 systems are no longer made, it is hard to understand how you would not expect a large demand.”

“We have switched to Daikin and will never switch back. This was a total failure. Blow smoke all you want. You failed us and we have to pay the price.”

“I’m calling bull crap on panic buying. This panel keeps talking about install and disregarding the service companies that can’t even find a bottle to handle the service calls. The manufacturers have had many years to get this right and very much missed the mark.”

“There is virtually none in the city of Phoenix and it was 105 yesterday.”

You get the idea. In response, the OEMs and refrigerant producers offered their generally identical takes on how the shortage developed and what they’re doing about it. None of them said, “you are in our thoughts and prayers,” which might have helped.

It could be that ACCA scheduled this meeting on relatively short notice because HVACR industry executives and ACCA itself were highly aware of the rumblings and grumblings in the field over the shortage of the new, A2L refrigerant (one of two) that is replacing R-410A, which is currently in the middle of a gradual, 85% phasedown until 2036. Contractors’ anger and frustration over shortages of R-454B refrigerant – which is all due to a shortage of cylinders based on inaccurate demand forecasting – has far surpassed the level of discontent they felt when R-22 was replaced by R-410A in 2010. And constantly changing efficiency standards are a walk in the park compared to this issue.

But it’s completely understandable, as 30% of contractors surveyed during the discussion said their workloads have been reduced due to difficulty in obtaining R-454B, 18% said they have halted installations, and 30% said they have switched brands, to equipment that is charged with refrigerant R-32, a competing A2L originally developed by Daikin.

The discussion – ably moderated with a mix of humor and gravitas by Eddie McFarlane of Sila Services and ACCA chair for 2025 – covered the reasons behind the cylinder/refrigerant shortage, what is being done to solve it and where the industry goes from here. McFarlane was joined by Wes Davis, ACCA Technical Services Director, and David Bixby, ACCA Manager of Codes and Standards.

HVAC executive panelists were:

Nicholas Arch, Vice President and General Manager, Carrier;
Chris Forth, Executive Director, Regulatory, Codes & Environmental Affairs, Johnson Controls Industries;
Jim VerShaw, Chief Engineer, Residential HVAC & Supply, Trane;
Scot Swan, Business Manager, Refrigerants, Arkema;
Graham Pratt, Americas Senior Business Director, Chemours;
Kirk Reimer,  Vice President of Sales, Hudson Technologies;
Jessica Wood, Vice President of Strategy, Honeywell; and
Joe Giannetti, General Manager – Cooling, Construction and Specialty, Worthington Enterprises, the HVACR industry’s major refrigerant cylinder supplier.

Cylinders in Good Supply
Giannetti began the hour by saying Worthington Enterprises’ supply of cylinders has been stabilized.

“We’re at record supply of these cylinders and have been for some time, and we’re not done,” Giannetti said, and explained that the AIM Act reshaped the supply-and-demand landscape very quickly, faster than the supporting infrastructure could keep up with.

“What we saw forecast late last year, we thought it was very low compared to what we thought might happen, but it did come on much stronger,” Giannetti said. “There was a huge jump in this because of the AIM Act,” he said, and added that in hindsight, Worthington and others could have confidently increased their forecasts by 5-to10 times the amount they had estimated.

Contractor demand for the new units charged with either R-32 or R-454B has been substantial. Heating, Air-conditioning & Refrigeration Distributors International (HARDI) reported in mid-June that central ducted HVAC systems charged with A2L refrigerants made up 51% of sales in April, with signs that May numbers would show an even greater increase.

Inaccurate Forecasting
Nick Arch said Carrier Corporation decided to go with R-454B in 2018 and was immersed in due diligence related to research and development and equipment supply, not in the refrigerant needed to charge those systems.

“We had alignment with our refrigerant suppliers all year long and last year, to get ready for this year. It came down to the readiness for the amount of cylinders and down-packing required to support the ramp-up in the field. We could make as much equipment as needed, but the challenges for installations and the impact from the technician’s standpoint is tremendous,” Arch said, and he also stressed that there was no shortage of R-454B equipment.

(Note: Down-packing is the transfer of refrigerant from a large, mother-lode type of container into 20–30 lb. cylinders).

“We saw a tremendous amount of sell-through of R-410A in Q4 and Q1 which I think exacerbated the overall ramp-up requirements,” Arch continued, “so it was a positive story to say ‘hey, there was great sell through,’ but it would appear as though with cylinder availability actually deployed to our distribution partners, there was a gap and that created a pinch, but we’re seeing steady improvement.”

Graham Pratt of Chemours said at the time of the EPA-directed refrigerant transition on January 1, 2025, there was also the build-up of R-454B equipment, but agreed that the manufacturing numbers of R-410A equipment muddied the forecasted need for R-454B refrigerant.

“Forecasting is really key, and if I look at where we were in January versus where we are just five months later, at the beginning of June, we’ve seen a sizable increase in orders that have come through a number of different channels,” Pratt said, and he agreed that a five-times to 10-times increased forecasted need would have been the smarter play.

“I can hear those listening saying, ‘I don’t care about that, you should have seen this coming,’ and that’s really just the reality we’re facing right now as we go into this,” Pratt said.

McFarlane said, very spot-on, that settling on forecasting and the unexpected speed of contractor demand as the causes of this problem is a “disappointingly simple explanation. I think we’d prefer there to be more to it than that, but it happens. It happens to us every day.

“There was an assumption that there would be a gradual switch [to R-454B] that didn’t happen.” 

What’s Being Done?

Jesicca Wood said Honeywell saw a demand spike in the late January/early February time frame. Honeywell’s R-454B product is branded as Solstice.

“Since then, we’ve gone into our global supply chain to see what we could do. We increased hiring by 30%, our blending and down-packing has increased by 44%, and we’re committed to doubling our capacity by the end of the year,” Wood said.

“[Honeywell is] continuing to look at every opportunity that we can to get more product out to our channel partners as quickly as possible,” she continued. “We’re working directly with our OEMs, some on the phone, to make sure that when they’re getting the units out they have the maximum charge [possible], to make sure that the contractors have less that they need to do there, and again, looking at the global supply chain, what can we bring in for a short-term fix to get [refrigerant] and then we will really start to see improvement as we continue to invest. There’s some long-term investments we’re looking at in our plant in Louisiana to see as we go forward, what will help from a long-term strategy as we work on short-term fixes,” Wood shared.

“I’m impressed with how OEMs are coming together to help resolve this,” said Chris Forth, and pointed to forecasting as the key to the conundrum.

“[Forecasters] look at this from a long-term perspective and we forecast for factory needs. OEMs really deal with the aftermarket side during transitions. It caught us a little off-guard in how much aftermarket [refrigerant was needed],” Forth continued, and said he was impressed by the way the industry has come together, with certain OEMs doing the additional charge and some doing down-packing.

Juggling Refrigerant Supply

Forth explained that JCI is redirecting some refrigerant normally used during unit production to the aftermarket to try to help the situation.

“I don’t think there is any OEM that hasn’t announced something they’re doing. We view this as a temporary situation,” Forth said. “This will be resolved, help is on the way, and I think we all agree that the spike [in demand] was a lot of the issue. But the various actions we’ve taken to help the situation reflect how the industry can come together to help the contractors. Those that do have shortages, it’s a real thing and we understand. But with the pre-build we’ve had of R-410A that caused some hiccups in the forecasting probably for some folks. And if you’re buying that on the open market, that’s going to be even more challenging. The decision for OEMs to help in the multiple ways they have has been awesome.”

Forth recalled the pain caused during the transition from R-22 to R-410A.

“There, it took the better part of a year for us to transition through that. Yes, we’ve had a spike, as suppliers have mentioned on the refrigerant side. The OEMs have seen that too, in the aftermarket, but we kind of are where we are in this and we’ll get through it. So, I would just caution [people]. Let’s stick together. We can work through it and get through this issue pretty quickly.”

Refrigerant producer Arkema entered the R-454B market in mid-May. “So having more suppliers in the market is always a good thing and it should help the issue in the meantime,” said Scot Swan.

Swan spoke to the safety practices required during down-packing, which involves the use of high-speed filling equipment, and the flammability issue.

“Whether it’s R-32 or R-454B, we have to make sure the electrical systems around those units are rated for flammable refrigerants. We have to be safe when we down-pack those materials. Because of that there was a lot of effort that needed to be made and investments to make that happen, and that’s still going on today. It’s going to take time to add capacity from a filling point of view, because you need to have the correct rating.”

Nick Arch said Carrier is adding refrigerant to accommodate a 30-ft. line set rather than the customary 15-ft.

“Obviously, we’re in the middle of the season and so, I feel that inventories are elevated. So obviously, we’ll start to see that roll through. Within distribution inventories, we do have a dedicated after market business that is working hand-in-hand with the refrigerant down-packers. So, when we think about allocations of refrigerant, we’re looking at the amount of equipment being shipped out to each distributor and pairing that with the required refrigerant.” Arch also spoke to comments by viewers related to distributors tying refrigerants to equipment shortages.

“Scarcity creates demand, and I think we have an overall peak here. So, it’s more about ensuring we’re all taking equitable positions across the network.”

“We have to take care of the homeowner first and foremost, and our division looks at how do we get those cylinders and the distribution to have those available to pair with those equipment purchases. And then, I think you transition to timing. We’ve seen the flow from our down-packers and refrigerant suppliers has steadily improved week to week. We see a steadier state by the end of July,” Arch said.

Panelists agreed that contractors should not combine R-410A, R-32 and R-454B as that practice is against regulations and could cause performance issues within the air conditioning unit due to different temperature/pressure performance characteristics and the different glide of each gas.

Caution Against "Panic Buying"

Ever since the issue materialized, contractors started buying as much R-454B as they could afford, whether there was a need or not. McFarlane noted that stockpiling by contractors can worsen the supply situation in a way similar to the hoarding of products that occurred during COVID, as this will result in contractors having lots of refrigerant they don’t immediately need.

“If you buy three skids of R-454B and the market normalizes, you’re going to have that on your balance sheet or price book for a while, McFarlane said.

Graham Pratt of Chemours advised against “panic buying,” adding that the practice could trigger a “bullwhip” reaction, in which even small fluctuations in customer demand at the retail level can be amplified as they move up the supply chain, resulting in larger fluctuations at the wholesale, distribution and manufacturing levels.

“We’ve heard of [the possibility of] a second wave [of demand], because at some point the market’s going to say, ‘I got all I need,’ and then the market will respond [by producing less] and then [demand] comes returns and the industry is not ready. It is not the contractors’ responsibility to forecast. There are many levels between the refrigerant supplier and the contractors that are ultimately responsible for providing that forecast, so that that's the only thing I want to clarify.”

Other than Nick Arch’s suggestion that the situation might be normalized by sometime in July, there was no firm prediction offered on when R-454B will be available to fully meet demand.

Scot Swan advised manufacturers to stay close to their suppliers to make sure they’re ready for these kind of transitions. “They’re the ones that can help bail them out in these situations, when there are shortages,” Swan said.