HVAC Shipments Twist and Turn

Many opinions are floating around, however the cause for the ups and downs of HVAC equipment shipments most likely lies in the nature of the US economy and the HVACR industry itself.

This month the Air-Conditioning Heating and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI) released data for November shipments of HVACR equipment, and a steep decrease of almost half in shipments  of air conditioners and air-source heat pumps was reported. 

Reasons posited for the decline include:

• the numbers for November 2024 were extra-high and a decline in November 2025 was expected;
• the condition of the overall US economy, including interest rates and the increased cost of living;
• excess inventory of R-410-friendly systems in contractor stock rooms, and they are now working to sell through many of those units before buying larger numbers of A2L systems;
• contractor wariness over the efficacy and sales challenges sometimes related to installing heat pumps when replacing existing ducted systems;
• high first cost for equipment and refrigerant, leading to increase "repair v. replace" scenarios. 
  

U.S. shipments of central air conditioners and air-source heat pumps totaled 379,470 units in November 2025 decreased 46.4 percent compared to 707,436 units shipped in November 2024.

U.S. shipments of air conditioners decreased 53.7 percent, to 181,223 units, compared to 391,531 units shipped in November 2024. U.S. shipments of air-source heat pumps decreased 37.2 percent, to 198,247 units, compared to 315,905 shipped in November 2024.

Year-to-date combined shipments of central air conditioners and air-source heat pumps decreased 19.9 percent, to 7,341,285, compared to 9,162,444 units shipped during the same period in 2024.

Year-to-date shipments of central air conditioners decreased 25.6 percent, to 3,916,218 units, compared to 5,265,430 units shipped during the same period in 2024. The year-to-date total for heat pump shipments decreased 12.1 percent, to 3,425,067, compared to 3,897,014 units shipped during the same period in 2024.

Warm Air Furnaces
November 2025 U.S. shipments of gas warm air furnaces decreased 8.4 percent, to 238,810 units, compared to 260,657 units shipped in November 2024. Oil warm air furnace shipments increased +9.5 percent, to 3,199 units in November 2025, compared to 2,921 units shipped in November 2024.

Year-to-date U.S. shipments of gas warm air furnaces increased +4.4 percent, to 2,980,361 units, compared to 2,853,618 units shipped during the same period in 2024. Year-to-date U.S. shipments of oil warm air furnaces increased +6.6 percent, to 28,741 units, compared to 26,949 units shipped during the same period in 2024.

Residential Storage Water Heaters
U.S. shipments of residential gas storage water heaters for November 2025 decreased -0.2 percent, to 318,129 units, compared to 318,773 units shipped in November 2024. Residential electric storage water heater shipments decreased -2.5 percent in November 2025 to 369,530 units, compared to 378,925 units shipped in November 2024.

Year-to-date U.S. shipments of residential gas storage water heaters increased +0.2 percent, to 3,833,557, compared to 3,826,273 shipped during that same period in 2024. Residential electric storage water heater shipments decreased -2.0 percent year-to-date, to 4,565,974 units, compared to 4,661,489 shipped during the same period in 2024.

Commercial Storage Water Heaters
Commercial gas storage water heater shipments decreased 8.2 percent in November 2025, to 5,660 units, compared to 6,163 units shipped in November 2024. Commercial electric storage water heater shipments increased +0.3 percent in November 2025, to 10,807, compared to 10,771 units shipped in November 2024.

Year-to-date U.S. shipments of commercial gas storage water heaters increased +3.1 percent, to 79,050 units, compared to 76,677 units shipped during the same period in 2024. Year-to-date commercial electric storage water heater shipments increased +6.6 percent, to 149,637 units, compared to 140,315 units shipped during the same period in 2024.